MIAMI — May 2025
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center projects a 50 % chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, driven by record-warm sea-surface temperatures and a lingering La Niña pattern expected to develop by late summer. The official outlook calls for:
| Metric | 2025 forecast | 30-year average |
|---|---|---|
| Named storms | 17 – 25 | 14 |
| Hurricanes | 8 – 13 | 7 |
| Major (Cat 3+) | 4 – 7 | 3 |
Senior hurricane specialist Matthew Rosencrans warned, “Ocean heat content is off the charts; storms that form may intensify rapidly and track farther west.”
Insurance pressure intensifies
- Florida: Citizens estimates a $7 billion surplus today—enough for one Category 4 landfall, after which assessments on all state policies would kick in.
- Louisiana: The insurer-of-last-resort already raised 2025 rates 27 % and will suspend new coastal policies if two majors hit in the same season, according to a January filing.
What homeowners can do now
- Check your wind-mitigation discounts. FORTIFIED® roof documentation in Alabama and Florida still shaves 10–20 % off premiums.
- Update contents coverage. Inflation has pushed replacement-cost values 8–12 % higher since the 2023 season.
- Lock a flood policy early. NFIP changes require a 30-day waiting period unless tied to a loan closing; private carriers can still waive it.
Real-time forecasts will be updated August 8. Until then, property owners from Brownsville to Wilmington should assume at least one land-threatening hurricane—and review both evacuation and insurance plans accordingly.
