The bond machine roars back
Progress Residential priced 2025‑SFR3, the first securitization backed solely by Build‑to‑Rent communities: 3 531 brand‑new homes in TX, AZ and FL. KBRA gave the AAA tranche a credit‑enhancement of 20.5 %. Business Wire
Market metrics
- Issuance: $5.4 bn YTD SFR bonds vs. $3.1 bn same time 2024.
- Occupancy: Invitation Homes hit 97.2 % in Q1 with 5.4 % rent growth.
- Cap rates: Stabilised BTR trade at 5.1 % vs. 4.4 % for existing stock, per Arbor’s April snapshot.
The GAO’s nuanced view
A 2024 GAO study found institutional buyers raise prices 1–4 % in the zip codes they enter but also cut vacancy and rehab distressed homes faster than mom‑and‑pop flippers. Government Accountability Office
Concentration risk and politics
KBRA warns if BTR bonds scale, a corner of the housing market could depend on refinance markets staying liquid—echoes of multifamily CMBS 2006. Meanwhile, lawmakers in AZ and GA filed bills to cap institutional ownership at 1 000 homes per county, though none have passed.
Local case study: Atlanta suburb
In Henry County, GA, investors own 19 % of SFR stock. Median rent is $2 100 vs. $1 870 in nearby counties with <5 % investor share. County board debates linkage fees to fund down‑payment programs for locals.
Outlook
2025‑26 may be a plateau: higher borrowing costs keep mega‑landlords from binge‑buying, but BTR continues because construction debt is cheaper than buying resale. Watch securitization volumes and any state‑level ownership caps.
