ST. PAUL / SACRAMENTO / DENVER — May 7 2025
| Hotspot | 2025 flashpoint | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| St. Paul, MN | Council to vote this month on permanent exemption for post‑2005 builds; permits already ‑80 % since cap passed. | Likely loosen |
| California | Voters rejected Prop 33 (61 % No), preserving Costa‑Hawkins limits on local rent control. | Caps stalled |
| Minneapolis | Charter‑authorized framework still stalled; staff reports warn caps could cut new supply 30 %. | On ice |
| Colorado | State p15 to let cities cap rents keeps resurfacing; 2025 version died in committee. | No caps (for now) |
Why it matters
- Developers cite “policy risk” premiums of 50–150 bps on pro‑forma cap rates in rent‑control zones.
- Tenant advocates are pivoting to algorithm‑ban bills (e.g., CO HB 25‑1004) after statewide defeats.
- Expect court challenges: landlords in St. Paul argue the rollback violates promise clauses; renter groups plan equal‑protection suits if exemptions pass.
For renters & investors
Track exemption carve‑outs closely: a unit built after 2025 in St. Paul could see 8 % + CPI hikes annually versus 3 % for older stock—huge valuation swing in underwriting.
