Market Median Asking Rent 1‑Month Δ 1‑Year Δ Active Listings
Texas (statewide) $1,750  0 $  ‑$200  75,915
Austin $1,900  + $22  ‑$375  6,047
Dallas $1,650  + $39  ‑$356  3,930
Houston $1,660  ‑ $40  ‑$239  9,203
San Antonio $1,600  ≈0 $  ‑$125  5,667

1. Executive takeaways

  • Statewide rents are running 5 % below the U.S. average ($1,850). After a $200 slide year‑over‑year, prices have flattened month‑to‑month.
  • Every major metro is still cheaper than a year ago, but the pace of decline is slowing; Austin and Dallas have already ticked up slightly in the last 30 days.
  • Supply is abundant: Zillow lists nearly 76 k available units statewide—roughly one listing for every 50 renter households.
  • Developers are hitting the brakes. New‑start volume across Houston, Austin and Dallas fell more than 50 % in Q1‑2025 versus 2023, according to RealPage.
  • RealPage expects effective rents to turn positive again (~2.5–3 % YoY) in 2H‑2025 as the construction wave recedes.

2. What’s happening on the ground?

Austin Dallas–Fort Worth Houston San Antonio
Driver Post‑building glut easing; concessions shrinking Class‑A oversupply still heavy Most affordable of the “big 3”; steady in‑migration Budget option; new build‑to‑rent stock
Vacancy (RealPage) ~10 % ↓ ~12 % → ~9 % → ~10.5 % ↑
Typical concessions 4‑6 wks free + parking 6‑8 wks free + gift cards 2‑4 wks free, free move‑in 1 mo free in luxury
2H‑2025 rent outlook +3–4 % +1–2 % +2.5–3 % +1 %

3. Supply pipeline & new starts

  • Record deliveries 2024: ±95 k new units across the “big four” metros.
  • Starts plunge: fewer than 6 k units broke ground in Houston in 2024—lowest since 2010.
  • 2025 forecast: 14–27 k completions per metro, still high but down ~25–30 % YoY.

4. Affordability check

  • Renters spend 28‑30 % of median household income on housing in most large Texas metros; Houston is the standout at ~21 %, Austin the stretch case at ~33 %.
  • Renting vs. owning gap: in Austin, monthly ownership costs run ~$1 000 higher than renting; Houston’s gap is ~$850. (Zillow ZHVI & mortgage math.)

5. Tactics for renters (May–July 2025)

  1. Negotiate: with median time‑on‑market near 30 days, landlords are still offering 1–2 months free in many Class‑A buildings.
  2. Target new deliveries: lease‑up properties carry the steepest incentives.
  3. Lock a 14‑ or 15‑month lease to straddle the near‑term bottom before 2026 rebounds.
  4. Compare ZIPs: Inside Austin, the spread between trendy 78704 ($2,100) and Cedar Park 78613 ($1,530) is almost 30 %.
  5. Watch “junk fees”: rising insurance costs are being passed through as $15‑30 monthly add‑ons, especially along the Gulf Coast.

6. Outlook to year‑end 2025

Metric (Texas) 2024 2025 (forecast)
Average rent growth (ZORI) –1.8 % +2.5 %
New units delivered 95 k ~65 k
Average vacancy 11 % 9.5 %
Typical concessions 6 wks 4 wks

Bottom line: Spring’s renter‑friendly window is closing. As construction starts dry up and absorption normalizes, landlords will regain leverage, pushing rents back into positive territory by late‑2025.

Data sources: Zillow Rental Manager, Zillow Research (ZORI), Apartment List National Rent Report, RealPage Analytics webcast & forecast.