Thirty‑year fixed mortgage rates have drifted down to 6.76 % this week, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey—still painfully high for many would‑be buyers, yet tantalisingly close to the sub‑6 % threshold that dominated the 2010s.

Economists now see at least a chance the barrier could fall before year‑end. Fannie Mae’s April outlook pegs the average 30‑year rate at 6.2 % by Q4 2025, trimming its previous forecast by 10 basis points. “We think disinflation and modest Fed easing will do most of the work,” chief economist Mark Palim wrote.

So far, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is in wait‑and‑see mode: the late‑April meeting held the policy rate steady at 4.25 %–4.50 %, and officials signalled they need “greater confidence” that inflation is receding. Futures traders are betting the first quarter‑point cut could come at the June 11 meeting, assigning roughly a 30 % probability, CME FedWatch data show.

Why 6 % still matters

  • Psychology: A number beginning with “5” unlocks memories of 2021’s pandemic‑era lows and spurs fence‑sitters to act.
  • Affordability math: On a $400 000 loan, dropping from 6.75 % to 5.99 % lowers the monthly payment by about $190 and shrinks required qualifying income by roughly $5 000 a year.
  • Refinance wave: MBA modelling shows refinance volume quadruples once the rate drops below borrowers’ existing notes by 75–100 bp.

What could get us there

  1. Soft inflation prints: Another two or three CPI reports below 0.2 % month‑over‑month would likely pull the 10‑year Treasury down further.
  2. Clear Fed pivot: A June or July cut would confirm the turn.
  3. Easing risk premiums: Wider spreads tied to elevated volatility have kept mortgage rates about 180 bp above Treasuries—historically it’s nearer 150 bp.

Bottom line for buyers
No one can guarantee 5‑handle mortgages in 2025, but the odds look better than they did even a month ago. If you’re in the market, consider a shorter‑lock or a lender float‑down option to capture a mid‑year dip—and keep an eye on those June and July Fed meetings.